2. Hardware

The growing power and falling prices of computer hardware will make it possible within

5 years for most scientists to have the equivalent of our present workstations available on their

desks. Everyone will have access to the equivalent of a 386 machine with VGA graphics. All

institutions will have a Post Script printer available.

Most desktops had 486 machines

3. TeX with Macro Package

Within five years there will be at least one standard macro package for the submission of manuscripts. We can assume the first standard will be some extension of ReVTeX. Other standards will be able to gain acceptance only if they have a large user base or their developers make a translation package. However, it is likely that at least one full screen editor will be accepted as a standard, too.

Correct

4. Graphics Standard

The scientific community will have standardized the means for transmission of graphics. There will probably be a few accepted standards. Embedded Postscript files will certainly be one of these standards, since this technique is in widespread use now for transmission of data and proposals to and from the Space Telescope Science Institute.

Correct

5. Data Storage systems

At least in astronomy, there will be a well established set of distributed databases supported by NASA (and probably NSF) in which public domain observational data will be stored. The data will be accessible over the Internet.

This was started with a few missions (e.g.IUE, IRAF, HST, and some High Energy missions and has since become standard

6. Data related to journal articles

In addition to basic data, the data “banks” will be able to store information from published articles, including data tables, algorithms, lists of objects, and other subsidiary data. Correct

7. Indexing, Retrieval and Browsing Tools

Within five years, there will be an entirely new suite of software available to help perform the search and retrieval functions. It will be possible to select and retrieve journal articles with the help of intelligent algorithms which will include full text searches and which go far beyond present day indexing and keyword schemes.

Mosaic brought the WEB into existence, including effective search tools. ADS introduced full text abstract searches and “similar abstract” searches

II. Society Vision

Where will the Societies fit into the publishing picture? Where should we strive to be in 1997? Over the last century, the scientific societies have organized and systematized the way in which scientists communicate their latest results to each other. This role will have to continue. It will require that the societies lead the way by organizing methods of electronic communication which are useful to their member communities.

1. Formal Journals

In order to survive, the formal, refereed journals will have to adopt electronic methods of publication and distribution to some degree. Mostly correct in Physics and Astronomy

Submission - Virtually every journal will be getting the bulk of its manuscripts electronically

Correct in 3/4 of astronomy journals

Editing and Refereeing – Most journals will use electronic communication for refereeing and editing.

Email was a stanndard method of editorial communication by 1977

Publishing - Within five years, assuming the adoption of a workable standard for transmitting graphics, a good fraction of the formal scientific literature will be distributed electronically. It may be a centralized distribution through libraries, printing on personal printers a selection of articles from the journal or even distribution on CD-ROMs.

This prediction predated the development of the Web, but was substantially correct for over ½ the astronomy papers published.. By 2002, this has come to pass for all physical sciences

2. Informal Publications

Paper Copies – Some journals will be well on their way to abandoning paper copies within five years. All viable journals (those expected to be able to survive to the year 2002) will have some sort of electronic version by 1997.

This has taken a bit longer to accomplish. The American Astronomical Society journals achieved this by 1997, and was universally true by 2001 in astronomy

Newsletters – Distribution of society news will be done electronically for all but a very few members. The distribution of information will be much faster, and interactions between the readers, the authors and the societies will be greatly encouraged.

Email and Web site had revolutionized communication by 1997

Directories/Indexes – Membership directories will be available on-line, as will indexes for the society literature. Other services, such as indexes of all the literature in a field will be available. Cost will be a factor. Scientific societies can play a big role in keeping costs within reason.

Membership directories were appearing by 1997. Searchable abstract databases covered astronomy and medical literature by 1997. Cost containment/cost cutting was achieved by the University of Chicago Press for the AAS, but other societies were not as successful.

Meeting Announcements/Programs/Summaries – Announcements will be made electronically to individuals. Programs of meetings and abstracts of papers will be available electronically before the meeting. The final meeting program will have to be available in paper at the meeting. Searching schemes, monitors and electronic output at the meeting would hasten the demise of paper programs.

Fully achieved by some societies (notably the AAS by 1993) by 1997, and by all societies by 2000.

3. Interactive services

Electronic Publication of Auxiliary Data – Some journals will be providing additional data in conjunction with their articles. More of the basic data upon which conclusions are based will be generally available. This may include intermediate results, extensive data table and possibly even algorithms and software used to arrive at conclusions in the published articles. While this might not always be practical, the ability to insert one’s own data, vary initial conditions and draw their own conclusions as to which data points are the “outliers” may be of great interest to some scientists.

This is true in concept, if not in exact detail. Video clips were appearing by 1997, and also a few cases of auxiliary data. Color images and extended table were starting to be published only in the electronic editions of jpournals.

Journal Searching and Retrieval of individual Articles – At least some on-line, searchable databases will exist with the ability to deliver postscript or bitmapped files of individual articles of interest to individual researchers. Payment methods for such distribution is something which will have to be worked out, and different search methods will have to be tested before a useful and flexible system can be defined.

Correct. The ADS had a searchable abstract database of the core astronomical literature, ans was linking to fulltext articles. They were well along with digitizing back issues, which were linked to the abstract database and references in current articles. Links to future citations were starting to be implemented on a routine basis.

Payments and orders – Members will be using electronic communication to do many things which are currently done by regular mail. Registering for meetings, paying dues, ordering publications and making changes of address will all be done on line by 80 percent of our members by 1997.

Correct – at least for the AAS. True for virtually all societies by 2000.

Bulletin Boards and Forums – Informal networks for scientists interested in limited topics will be in use within five years. The societies may be playing a part in these developments, with the goal of seeing that informal discussions reach a wide audience.

Correct, but without much official society involvement.

Letters and Comments Service – Undoubtedly electronic forums for comments, opinions and “letters to the editor” will spring up within various scientific communities. The societies may be starting to play a role in regulating discussion and making comments available to a wider audience by 1997.

Some of this activity was starting by 1997. The LANL preprint server was making a strong impact in some fields of physics and astronomy.

5. Books

Scientific monographs, with a small print run and several hundred pages of text do not lend themselves well to electronic distribution, yet. Most books will still be produced in paper form until the end of the century. An electronic version for indexing and searching will probably be necessary. Perhaps CD-ROM is a good medium for book distribution.

E-books had not appeared by 1997, and are of questionable use even in 2002

III. Competition and Problems

There will be a number of problem areas, including financial and legal questions. An accompanying background memo mentions some of these. However, the competition question is a difficult one. The competition for dissemination of research results may well come from the growth of electronic preprint networks. Such networks are a simple outgrowth of the current practice of sending paper preprints around to a limited group of friends. The purpose may be to ask opinions from people you trust, or it may be to spread your work around before the journal completes the ponderous job of refereeing and printing your work. Easy network access offers a seductive way to publish things yourself, but the value of the refereed publication is lost. In most cases, quality is lost with it.

The Los Alamos preprint server is an example which had achieved importance in astronomy by 1997.

The value of the refereed scientific literature has resided in the selection for quality and the stamp of accuracy which has been the hallmark of the better journals. This must not be lost. The provision of accurate, high-quality and low cost scientific journals is one of the fundamental bases upon which the scientific societies are founded.

Recent surveys (in 2002) of electronic resources by the astronomical community bears out the importance of refereed scientific journals for definitive inforamtion.

It will be important for us, as scientific societies, to monitor the use of electronic communication for informal publishing and to see if we can or should contribute to the informal research marketplace. The present publishers, both commercial and non-profit will be seeking ways to turn the “electronic revolution” to their credit. In order to keep down the cost to our community we must lead the way, or at least stay in competition.